diff --git a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/document_cell.rs b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/document_cell.rs
index 919e589f5..b5a5a3dc2 100644
--- a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/document_cell.rs
+++ b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/document_cell.rs
@@ -7,6 +7,35 @@ use std::ops::Deref;
 
 use loro::LoroDoc;
 
+/// A measured point relating the document's operation count to its encoded
+/// size, taken from one real snapshot export.
+struct Calibration {
+    ops: usize,
+    bytes: usize,
+}
+
+impl Calibration {
+    /// Encoded size implied by `ops`, holding the measured bytes-per-operation
+    /// ratio fixed. Widened to `u128` because a large document's
+    /// `bytes * ops` overflows `usize` on 32-bit targets long before either
+    /// factor does.
+    fn scale_to(&self, ops: usize) -> usize {
+        let scaled = self.bytes as u128 * ops as u128 / self.ops as u128;
+        usize::try_from(scaled).unwrap_or(usize::MAX)
+    }
+
+    /// Whether `ops` is close enough to the measured point to interpolate
+    /// from it. Encoded density is stable within a document — what changes it
+    /// is a different *kind* of content, which arrives gradually — so the
+    /// ratio is re-measured once the operation count has halved or doubled.
+    ///
+    /// Bounding recalibration to a doubling makes the export cost amortise to
+    /// O(1) per write, rather than being paid on every write.
+    fn covers(&self, ops: usize) -> bool {
+        ops > 0 && ops <= self.ops.saturating_mul(2) && ops.saturating_mul(2) >= self.ops
+    }
+}
+
 /// A `LoroDoc` together with the values cached from it.
 ///
 /// Compaction does not mutate a document, it replaces one: `compact_history`
@@ -26,9 +55,14 @@ use loro::LoroDoc;
 /// Reads go through `Deref`, so every `self.doc.…` call site is untouched.
 pub(in crate::state) struct DocumentCell {
     doc: LoroDoc,
-    /// Snapshot size and the oplog version it was measured at. `None` until
-    /// the estimate is first asked for.
-    memory_estimate: RefCell<Option<(loro::VersionVector, usize)>>,
+    /// Last real measurement of encoded size, and the operation count it was
+    /// taken at. `None` until the estimate is first asked for.
+    calibration: RefCell<Option<Calibration>>,
+    /// Real snapshot exports performed to answer `estimated_bytes`. The point
+    /// of the calibration is that this grows logarithmically with the number
+    /// of writes, not linearly, which is a property worth asserting.
+    #[cfg(test)]
+    exports: std::cell::Cell<usize>,
 }
 
 impl DocumentCell {
@@ -36,7 +70,9 @@ impl DocumentCell {
     pub(in crate::state) fn new(doc: LoroDoc) -> Self {
         Self {
             doc,
-            memory_estimate: RefCell::new(None),
+            calibration: RefCell::new(None),
+            #[cfg(test)]
+            exports: std::cell::Cell::new(0),
         }
     }
 
@@ -46,33 +82,56 @@ impl DocumentCell {
         *self = Self::new(doc);
     }
 
-    /// Snapshot size in bytes, as a proxy for memory footprint.
+    /// Estimated encoded size in bytes, as a proxy for memory footprint.
+    ///
+    /// Loro exposes no direct memory metric, and a snapshot export — the
+    /// honest proxy — costs O(document). Callers put this on the write path
+    /// (a memory governor updated after every operation), so paying a full
+    /// re-encode per call means every write re-serialises the whole document:
+    /// ~100 ms per write on a 4 MB document, and proportionally worse above
+    /// that.
+    ///
+    /// So the export is used to *calibrate* rather than to answer. `len_ops`
+    /// is an inlined oplog counter, and it counts operations that are still in
+    /// an open transaction, so it tracks writes the moment they happen. The
+    /// answer is that counter scaled by the measured bytes-per-operation, and
+    /// a real export runs only when the count leaves the calibrated range.
     ///
-    /// Loro exposes no direct memory metric. A snapshot export is proportional
-    /// to state size, which is good enough for pressure monitoring but costs
-    /// O(document) — and the callers that want it are polling loops. It is
-    /// therefore measured once per version rather than once per call.
-    /// The version is a sound cache key because `oplog_vv` counts operations
-    /// that are still in an open transaction — a write is visible to the key
-    /// the moment it happens, not when it commits. `state::tests` pins that
-    /// property, since the cache is wrong the day it stops holding.
+    /// Exact whenever the document has not changed since it was measured;
+    /// an interpolation otherwise, which is what a pressure signal needs.
     pub(in crate::state) fn estimated_bytes(&self) -> usize {
-        let version = self.doc.oplog_vv();
-        if let Some((measured_at, bytes)) = self.memory_estimate.borrow().as_ref()
-            && *measured_at == version
-        {
-            return *bytes;
+        let ops = self.doc.len_ops();
+        if let Some(calibration) = self.calibration.borrow().as_ref() {
+            if ops == calibration.ops {
+                return calibration.bytes;
+            }
+            if calibration.covers(ops) {
+                return calibration.scale_to(ops);
+            }
         }
 
+        #[cfg(test)]
+        self.exports.set(self.exports.get() + 1);
         let Ok(snapshot) = self.doc.export(loro::ExportMode::Snapshot) else {
             // A failed export is not a measurement. Caching the zero would pin
-            // the document at "empty" until its next write moved the version.
+            // the document at "empty" until enough writes moved it out of
+            // range again.
             return 0;
         };
         let bytes = snapshot.len();
-        *self.memory_estimate.borrow_mut() = Some((version, bytes));
+        // An empty document is not a ratio: it would divide by zero, and the
+        // export that measured it was trivial anyway.
+        if ops > 0 {
+            *self.calibration.borrow_mut() = Some(Calibration { ops, bytes });
+        }
         bytes
     }
+
+    /// How many real snapshot exports `estimated_bytes` has performed.
+    #[cfg(test)]
+    pub(in crate::state) fn export_count(&self) -> usize {
+        self.exports.get()
+    }
 }
 
 impl Deref for DocumentCell {
diff --git a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/snapshot.rs b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/snapshot.rs
index 237e5858a..d6dd7ffe1 100644
--- a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/snapshot.rs
+++ b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/snapshot.rs
@@ -147,13 +147,24 @@ impl CrdtState {
     /// Includes operation history, current state, and internal caches.
     /// Use this to decide when to trigger `compact_history()`.
     ///
-    /// The proxy is a full snapshot export, so it is measured once per version
-    /// rather than once per call: a document nobody is writing cannot have
-    /// changed size. Compaction discards the measurement along with the
-    /// document it described.
+    /// Cheap enough to call on the write path. The underlying proxy is a
+    /// snapshot export, which costs O(document), so it is used to calibrate a
+    /// bytes-per-operation ratio and the answer comes from the oplog's
+    /// operation counter — a real export runs only when the document has
+    /// halved or doubled since it was last measured. Exact for a document that
+    /// has not changed since then, an interpolation otherwise.
+    ///
+    /// Compaction discards the measurement along with the document it
+    /// described.
     pub fn estimated_memory_bytes(&self) -> usize {
         self.doc.estimated_bytes()
     }
+
+    /// Real snapshot exports performed to answer `estimated_memory_bytes`.
+    #[cfg(test)]
+    pub(crate) fn export_count_for_test(&self) -> usize {
+        self.doc.export_count()
+    }
 }
 
 #[cfg(test)]
diff --git a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/tests.rs b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/tests.rs
index 3bccf4e24..87def6ccd 100644
--- a/nodedb-crdt/src/state/tests.rs
+++ b/nodedb-crdt/src/state/tests.rs
@@ -221,6 +221,55 @@ fn estimated_memory_follows_compaction() {
     );
 }
 
+#[test]
+fn estimated_memory_does_not_re_encode_on_every_write() {
+    let state = CrdtState::new(1).unwrap();
+    for i in 0..2_000 {
+        state
+            .upsert("items", &format!("i-{i}"), &[("v", LoroValue::I64(i))])
+            .unwrap();
+        state.estimated_memory_bytes();
+    }
+
+    // The estimate is called after every write by the memory governor. Paying
+    // a full document re-encode per call is what made a large store take
+    // ~0.5 s per record; the calibrated ratio has to make that logarithmic in
+    // the number of writes, not linear.
+    let exports = state.export_count_for_test();
+    assert!(
+        exports < 32,
+        "{exports} full exports for 2000 writes — the estimate is re-encoding \
+         the document per write again"
+    );
+}
+
+#[test]
+fn estimated_memory_stays_close_to_the_real_encoded_size() {
+    let state = CrdtState::new(1).unwrap();
+    for i in 0..2_000 {
+        state
+            .upsert(
+                "items",
+                &format!("i-{i}"),
+                &[("v", LoroValue::String("payload".repeat(4).into()))],
+            )
+            .unwrap();
+        state.estimated_memory_bytes();
+    }
+
+    // Interpolating between calibrations trades exactness for cost. It is a
+    // pressure signal, so it may drift — but it has to stay the same order as
+    // the truth, or the thresholds built on it mean nothing.
+    let estimate = state.estimated_memory_bytes() as f64;
+    let actual = state.export_snapshot().unwrap().len() as f64;
+    let ratio = estimate / actual;
+    assert!(
+        (0.5..=2.0).contains(&ratio),
+        "estimate {estimate} vs actual {actual} (ratio {ratio:.2}) — drifted \
+         beyond what a pressure signal can carry"
+    );
+}
+
 #[test]
 fn oplog_version_counts_uncommitted_operations() {
     let state = CrdtState::new(1).unwrap();