feat: observed multi-cropping baseline from MIRCA-OS

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -17,6 +17,22 @@ introduce breaking changes to configuration and outputs.
 
 ### Added
 
+- Multiple cropping is now anchored to an observed baseline derived from
+  MIRCA-OS v2 (new automated data source), using the available 2010, 2015, or
+  2020 release nearest `baseline_year`. A fixed, documented sequence catalog
+  replaces dynamic combination discovery. Config entries may disable catalog
+  sequences or add zero-baseline greenfield potential under a new name.
+  Irrigated and rainfed observations are attributed separately, competing
+  rotations share crop-area budgets, and outputs are derived per config so the
+  spatial and climate inputs cannot be mixed between runs.
+  `crop_production_multi` links participate in the land deviation penalty, crop
+  growth cap, cost calibration, and validation-mode pinning like single-crop
+  links. Harvested cycles are reconciled out of the single-crop FAOSTAT
+  baselines so each cycle is counted once. A new `multi_crop_cost.csv`
+  calibration artefact carries per-(combination, country) bundle corrections.
+  The GAEZ growing-season compatibility gate is removed; observed feasibility
+  comes from MIRCA plus the GAEZ multiple-cropping zone.
+
 - New `health.segment_formulation: relax_and_fix` option (now the default):
   a two-pass LP scheme for the health module's non-convex dose-response
   curves (solve the relaxation, pin each non-convex curve to the segment of

config/calibration/cost.yaml

@@ -20,8 +20,8 @@
 #     data/curated/calibration/grassland_cost.csv \
 #     data/curated/calibration/animal_cost.csv
 
-# Shared name across all calibration configs so the expensive upstream
-# processing is built once under processing/calibration/ and reused.
+# ``tools/calibrate`` overrides this with a source- and step-specific name so
+# another calibration config cannot overwrite this step's intermediates.
 name: "calibration"
 
 scenarios:

config/calibration/feed.yaml

@@ -30,9 +30,8 @@
 #     data/curated/calibration/exogenous_forage.csv \
 #     data/curated/calibration/exogenous_feed.csv
 
-# Shared name across all calibration configs so the expensive upstream
-# processing (crop yields, harvested area, regions, etc.) is built once
-# under processing/calibration/ and reused by each calibration step.
+# ``tools/calibrate`` overrides this with a source- and step-specific name so
+# another calibration config cannot overwrite this step's intermediates.
 name: "calibration"
 
 scenarios:
@@ -81,6 +80,7 @@ exogenous_feed_calibration:
   scenario: feed_uncal
 
 health:
+  enabled: false
   value_per_yll: 0
 
 emissions:

config/calibration/food_demand.yaml

@@ -34,8 +34,8 @@
 #   tools/smk --configfile config/calibration/food_demand.yaml -- \
 #     data/curated/calibration/food_demand.csv
 
-# Shared name across all calibration configs so the expensive upstream
-# processing is built once under processing/calibration/ and reused.
+# ``tools/calibrate`` overrides this with a source- and step-specific name so
+# another calibration config cannot overwrite this step's intermediates.
 name: "calibration"
 
 scenarios:
@@ -74,6 +74,7 @@ food_demand_calibration:
   scenario: "food_demand_uncal"
 
 health:
+  enabled: false
   value_per_yll: 0
 
 emissions:

config/calibration/food_waste.yaml

@@ -25,8 +25,8 @@
 #   tools/smk --configfile config/calibration/food_waste.yaml -- \
 #     data/curated/calibration/food_waste.yaml
 
-# Shared name across all calibration configs so the expensive upstream
-# processing is built once under processing/calibration/ and reused.
+# ``tools/calibrate`` overrides this with a source- and step-specific name so
+# another calibration config cannot overwrite this step's intermediates.
 name: "calibration"
 
 scenarios:
@@ -72,6 +72,7 @@ food_loss_waste_calibration:
   scenario: "food_waste_uncal"
 
 health:
+  enabled: false
   value_per_yll: 0
 
 emissions:

config/calibration/stability.yaml

@@ -20,8 +20,8 @@
 #   tools/smk --configfile config/calibration/stability.yaml -- \
 #     data/curated/calibration/deviation_penalty.yaml
 
-# Shared name across all calibration configs so the expensive upstream
-# processing is built once under processing/calibration/ and reused.
+# ``tools/calibrate`` overrides this with a source- and step-specific name so
+# another calibration config cannot overwrite this step's intermediates.
 name: "calibration"
 
 planning_horizon: 2020
@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ baseline_year: 2020
 emissions:
   ghg_price: 0
 health:
+  enabled: false
   value_per_yll: 0
 
 # Block-based diminishing marginal utility for food consumption (used by main

config/default.yaml

@@ -387,7 +387,7 @@ crops:
 # land can be brought into production for them. Each entry must:
 #   * appear in `crops`,
 #   * be absent from `irrigation.irrigated_crops` (rainfed-only),
-#   * not appear in any `multiple_cropping` combination,
+#   * not appear in any curated or configured multi-cropping combination,
 #   * have a row in data/curated/cropgrids_crop_mapping.csv,
 # enforced by workflow/validation/cropgrids_crops.py.
 cropgrids_crops:
@@ -441,28 +441,10 @@ non_food_crops:
 - biomass-sorghum
 
 # --- section: multiple_cropping ---
-multiple_cropping:
-  double_rice:
-    crops:
-    - wetland-rice
-    - wetland-rice
-    water_supplies:
-    - r
-    - i
-  rice_wheat:
-    crops:
-    - wetland-rice
-    - wheat
-    water_supplies:
-    - r
-    - i
-  maize_soybean:
-    crops:
-    - maize
-    - soybean
-    water_supplies:
-    - r
-    - i
+# Observed systems come from the curated MIRCA-OS catalog. Set a catalog name
+# to null to disable it, or add a uniquely named combination to expose
+# zero-baseline greenfield potential. Catalog combinations cannot be redefined.
+multiple_cropping: {}
 
 # --- section: macronutrients ---
 macronutrients: {}
@@ -1798,6 +1780,7 @@ cost_calibration:
   generate: false     # Generate calibration from solved model (breaks DAG cycle when true)
   scenario: "calibration"  # Scenario name used for calibration solve
   crop_correction_csv: "data/curated/calibration/{calibration_source}/crop_cost.csv"
+  multi_crop_correction_csv: "data/curated/calibration/{calibration_source}/multi_crop_cost.csv"
   grassland_correction_csv: "data/curated/calibration/{calibration_source}/grassland_cost.csv"
   animal_correction_csv: "data/curated/calibration/{calibration_source}/animal_cost.csv"
 

config/schemas/config.schema.yaml

@@ -698,12 +698,17 @@ properties:
                   type: string
               water_supplies:
                 type: array
-                minItems: 2
-                maxItems: 3
+                minItems: 1
+                maxItems: 2
+                uniqueItems: true
                 items:
                   type: string
                   enum: [r, i]
-    description: "Multiple cropping systems (double cropping)"
+    description: |
+      Overrides and greenfield additions to the curated MIRCA-OS combination
+      catalog. Set a catalog name to null to disable it. A non-null entry must
+      use a new name and defines a zero-baseline combination that optimization
+      may develop where GAEZ indicates sufficient potential.
 
   macronutrients:
     type: object
@@ -1658,7 +1663,7 @@ properties:
 
   cost_calibration:
     type: object
-    required: [enabled, generate, scenario, crop_correction_csv, grassland_correction_csv, animal_correction_csv]
+    required: [enabled, generate, scenario, crop_correction_csv, multi_crop_correction_csv, grassland_correction_csv, animal_correction_csv]
     additionalProperties: false
     properties:
       enabled:
@@ -1673,6 +1678,9 @@ properties:
       crop_correction_csv:
         type: string
         description: "Path to crop cost calibration correction CSV"
+      multi_crop_correction_csv:
+        type: string
+        description: "Path to multi-cropping cost calibration correction CSV"
       grassland_correction_csv:
         type: string
         description: "Path to grassland cost calibration correction CSV"