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Publish the first adjudicated real-history accuracy row (2026-W26)#255

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pengfei-threemoonslab merged 1 commit into
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Jul 7, 2026
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Publish the first adjudicated real-history accuracy row (2026-W26)#255
pengfei-threemoonslab merged 1 commit into
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Stacked on #254 (merge that first; GitHub retargeting note: re-base this to main after #254 lands if the branch isn't auto-deleted).

Roadmap item 1 (阻塞级): the W26 mined corpus (120 real merged PRs: stripe/agent-toolkit, block/goose, pydantic/pydantic-ai) is now labeled, scored, and published — ugly numbers included, per the "难看也发" instruction.

What the numbers say

  • Funnel: 110/120 trigger-skip (consistent with the 93% base rate across W24–W26's 361 PRs), 6 evaluated (all stripe), 4 scan_failed (the chipped goose duplicate-action_id crash).
  • Adjudicated ground truth (10 rows): 8 safe_to_merge, 2 needs_human, 0 must_block.
  • Score: needs_human_caught 1.0 — both authority-bearing changes (a new auto-synced skill directing CLI installs; a skill-sync supply-chain rewiring with a dropped API-key requirement) were held for a human. benign_escalation_rate 0.0. ie_rate_on_safe 0.5; the other 4 safe rows crashed. The gate never wrongly passes and never cleanly passes on this corpus — abstention (config-bound gap) or crash, which is precisely what the in-flight dynamic-toolkit work must move.

Method disclosure (in the run notes, so the caveat travels with the numbers)

Two independent AI labelers (separate contexts, no coordination, real diffs fetched) per LABELING.md; disagreement 0/10 — both independently flagged the same two rows as needs_human with the same reasoning; third-pass adjudication. Labels are AI-generated pending human spot-check.

Where it's published

  • benchmark/miner/results/2026-W26-mined.labels.csv (adjudicated, per protocol: only the adjudicated file is committed).
  • benchmark/miner/README.md § "2026-W26 labels + score" (full confusion matrix, method, reading).
  • README status banner now states the real numbers instead of "no precision/recall numbers are published yet" — small n, framed exactly as small n.

test_public_surface_contract + test_miner_corpus green.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The W26 worksheet (10 rows: 6 evaluated, 4 scan_failed) is labeled and
committed per LABELING.md. Method disclosed in the run notes: two
independent AI labelers (separate contexts, real diffs fetched),
disagreement 0/10, third-pass adjudication; labels are AI-generated
pending human spot-check.

Ground truth: 8 safe_to_merge, 2 needs_human, 0 must_block. Score:
needs_human_caught 1.0 (2/2 held for a human), benign_escalation_rate
0.0, ie_rate_on_safe 0.5, 4/8 safe rows unscored (the chipped goose
duplicate-action_id crash). Reading: on real toolkit history the gate
never wrongly passes and never cleanly passes — abstention (the
config-bound gap) or crash. Published in benchmark/miner/README.md and
surfaced honestly in the README status banner, replacing "no numbers
published yet" with the numbers.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@pengfei-threemoonslab pengfei-threemoonslab merged commit 129f812 into check-verify-required Jul 7, 2026
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