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Add Fracast-0 fev-bench results - #189

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ztxtech wants to merge 1 commit into
autogluon:mainfrom
ztxtech:add-fracast-0-results
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ztxtech wants to merge 1 commit into
autogluon:mainfrom
ztxtech:add-fracast-0-results

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@ztxtech

@ztxtech ztxtech commented Sep 26, 2026

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Hi, thank you for maintaining FEV-Bench.

This PR adds the Fracast-0 wrapper, requirements, and the complete 100-task fev-bench summary CSV. Fracast-0 is released as an 85K-parameter time-series foundation model under Apache-2.0, with weights at ztxtech/fracast-0.

The evaluation was run locally on Apple MPS with batch size 512 and the w8 weights:

uv run python models/evaluate.py -m fracast-0 -b benchmarks/fev_bench/tasks.yaml -k '{"model_id":"ztxtech/fracast-0","weights":"w8","batch_size":512,"device":"mps"}'

All 100 tasks completed without a task-level failure. The CSV contains 100 rows with no missing SQL or MASE. The adapter has an explicit deterministic fallback for 572 of 235,039 sequence windows (0.243%) whose available context had fewer than 8 finite observations: it repeats the most recent finite value. This is recorded in the wrapper and avoids silently propagating NaNs from the sparse source contexts.

trained_on_datasets covers the complete autogluon/fev_datasets configuration list used for Fracast-0 pretraining, and the CSV sets trained_on_this_dataset=True. Consequently, the leaderboard's leakage-imputation procedure replaces all Fracast-0 errors with Chronos-Bolt and gives an aggregate identical to that model. This submission is therefore an in-corpus result plus adapter, not a claim of an independent zero-shot FEV result.

By submitting this pull request, I confirm that you can use, modify, copy, and redistribute this contribution, under the terms of your choice.

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