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settle: detection-quality report, honest claim reframe, restore decide subcommand - #78

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bigboateng merged 2 commits into
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docs/settle-detection-quality
Jul 21, 2026
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settle: detection-quality report, honest claim reframe, restore decide subcommand#78
bigboateng merged 2 commits into
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docs/settle-detection-quality

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Closes out settle's evaluation honestly (options 5 + 6 from the "how do we prove settle" discussion), and fixes a merge gap.

1. Restore decide subcommand (fix)

decide.go (decision-only stdin→verdict mode) didn't make it into the #75 squash-merge, but the Harbor integration (SETTLE_INTEGRATION.md) calls settle decide. Restored + wired into main.go. Build/vet/test green.

2. docs/05-detection-quality.md (offline evaluation)

What can be said without a causal experiment:

  • Fixture correctness: 0 false positives / 0 false negatives on the labeled golden set (incl. the hidden-progress case that an error-only detector would fail).
  • Empirical precision: at the redirect threshold (dwell 2), settle is right ~93% of the time on real traces (via the recovery-probability curve in calibration.json); the deny rung (dwell ≥ 5) is effectively dormant on this corpus.
  • Firing rate: ~10% of real trajectories nudged, 0 denies across 317 trajectories.

3. Honest claim reframe (README + docs/04)

Being-evaluatedEvaluated: net-neutral on Qwen/terminal-bench — that workload's failures are step-budget/approach-bound, not loops (~13% loop-shaped, 0% deny-eligible). Stated as a result, not a shortcoming. Causal uplift remains open and belongs to a loop-prone population (smaller/cheaper models — settle's original thesis — and online evals), flagged as the next experiment.

No invented numbers; every figure traces to calibration.json, the fixtures, or qwen-budget200.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

decide.go (decision-only stdin/stdout mode) didn't land in the #75 squash, but
the Harbor integration depends on it. Restores the file + wires the 'decide'
case in main.go. Build/vet/test green.
Adds docs/05-detection-quality.md: fixture correctness (0 FP/FN), ~93% precision
at the redirect threshold via the recovery curve, ~10% firing rate on real
traces, deny rung dormant. Reframes Status/docs-04 from Being-evaluated to
Evaluated: net-neutral on Qwen/terminal-bench (workload not loop-bound); causal
uplift on loop-prone workloads (small models, online evals) = next experiment.
@bigboateng
bigboateng merged commit 6ed7b87 into main Jul 21, 2026
@bigboateng
bigboateng deleted the docs/settle-detection-quality branch July 21, 2026 09:24
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