feat: forecast level/debias check, prior blend, and approach scoring#389
Merged
Conversation
… processing Three pure additions to spotforecast2_safe.processing, motivated by the 2026-06-13 team_4 post-mortem (a flat all-day over-prediction on a low-load Saturday the four-zone setup could not catch): - shape_check.check_forecast_level / LevelCheckReport / apply_level_correction: detect and remove a systematic flat level offset; complements the existing profile/shape check. - blend.blend_with_prior: convex post-hoc blend of a model forecast with an external prior — the correct lever for down-weighting a near-oracle prior, since tree models are invariant to monotonic feature scaling. - forecast_scoring.score_forecasts: tidy approach-by-metric table ranking competing forecasts (e.g. 4-zone bottom-up sum vs single combined model) against a shared actual. Pure pandas/numpy, no forbidden deps; registered in the quartodoc API reference; 67 new unit tests; full suite green (2755 passed). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
bartzbeielstein
pushed a commit
that referenced
this pull request
Jun 14, 2026
## [22.9.0](v22.8.0...v22.9.0) (2026-06-14) ### Features * add forecast level/debias, prior blend, and approach scoring to processing ([#389](#389)) ([165d5de](165d5de))
This file contains hidden or bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Sign up for free
to join this conversation on GitHub.
Already have an account?
Sign in to comment
1 participant
Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.This suggestion is invalid because no changes were made to the code.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is closed.Suggestions cannot be applied while viewing a subset of changes.Only one suggestion per line can be applied in a batch.Add this suggestion to a batch that can be applied as a single commit.Applying suggestions on deleted lines is not supported.You must change the existing code in this line in order to create a valid suggestion.Outdated suggestions cannot be applied.This suggestion has been applied or marked resolved.Suggestions cannot be applied from pending reviews.Suggestions cannot be applied on multi-line comments.Suggestions cannot be applied while the pull request is queued to merge.Suggestion cannot be applied right now. Please check back later.
What
Three pure additions to
spotforecast2_safe.processing, from the 2026-06-13 team_4 post-mortem (a flat all-day over-prediction on a low-load Saturday the four-zone setup could not catch):shape_check.check_forecast_level/LevelCheckReport/apply_level_correctionblend.blend_with_priorforecast_scoring.score_forecastsPlacement
All pure pandas/numpy — no forbidden deps (plotly/matplotlib/spotoptim/optuna/torch/tensorflow), so they live in sf2-safe.
Verification
_quarto.yml+ regenerateddocs/reference/(API-Reference-In-Sync gate).🤖 Generated with Claude Code